Manchester City welcome Newcastle United to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday 4th February 2026 in the second leg of their EFL Cup semi-final, as Pep Guardiola’s side look to assert their authority and book another trip to Wembley. City will rely on their formidable home record and depth of quality to control proceedings, while Newcastle travel aiming to disrupt the hosts and keep their cup ambitions alive. Kick-off is at 20:00 GMT, with City expected to dominate possession in a high-stakes knockout clash.
| Match Details | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | League Cup |
| Matchday | Semi-final |
| Date | Wednesday 4 February 2026 |
| Kick-off Time | 20:00 GMT |
| Venue | Etihad Stadium |
| Broadcast | Sky Sports Football & Main Event |
| Market | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Full-Time Result | Manchester City | ★★★★☆ |
| Correct Score | Manchester City 2-0 Newcastle United | ★★★☆☆ |
| Both Teams to Score | No | ★★★☆☆ |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ |
Odds: 13/10 with BOYLE Sports
Value Rating: ★★★☆☆
Analysis: Manchester City have kept three clean sheets in their last four matches, conceding just one goal in that run, illustrating a defensive organisation that few sides can match this season. Newcastle, for their part, have scored in each of their last four but have also found goals harder to come by on the road and have failed to score in three of their last five meetings with City in all competitions. Given City’s 67.4% average possession and ability to suffocate opposition attacks, plus Newcastle’s tendency to miss big chances (three ‘big chances missed’ for Osula alone this season), the value is firmly with ‘No’ in the Both Teams to Score market.
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Odds: 51/20 with 10Bet
Value Rating: ★★★★☆
Analysis: Foden remains a lively threat in advanced midfield roles, with his movement between the lines perfectly suited to exploiting Newcastle’s defensive vulnerabilities. He has scored regularly in cup competitions and is supported by City’s dominant passing game (90.44% pass accuracy, highest in the league). Newcastle’s defence, which has kept just one clean sheet in their last four, is particularly susceptible to late runs from midfield – something Foden excels at. With City averaging 9 goals in 4 recent matches and Foden’s ability to get on the end of cutbacks, the value at 51/20 is strong.
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City are in imperious form, unbeaten in their last four and conceding just a single goal. Their 67.4% average possession this season underlines their control of matches, with a pass completion rate of 90.44%. Offensively, they have scored 9 goals in their last 4, mostly from midfield contributors, while defensively their 3 clean sheets signal a side in balance and good health.
Newcastle have scored 8 goals in their last 4, with a strong xG (expected goals) figure of 4.63, indicating that they are creating quality chances. However, with just 1 clean sheet and 4 goals conceded in that period, their defensive record lags behind City’s. They average 56.93% possession and 87.57% pass accuracy, but this is a significant step down from their hosts.
Pep Guardiola’s side are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, dominating the ball and looking to overload wide areas before cutting inside. Their midfielders, particularly Rayan Cherki and Phil Foden, play crucial roles in progressing the ball and creating chances. City’s full-backs may invert to provide additional central support, aiding in ball retention and pressing transitions.
Eddie Howe’s team favour a 4-3-3 but are likely to sit deeper than usual, focusing on compactness and looking for quick counters, especially exploiting the pace of Anthony Gordon and William Osula. Newcastle’s midfield will be tasked with disrupting City’s rhythm, but their lower pass accuracy (87.57%) suggests they may struggle to keep possession for long spells.
| Statistic | Manchester City | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | N/A | N/A |
| Goals Scored | 9 | 8 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 4 |
| xG (Expected Goals) | N/A | N/A |
| xGA (Expected Goals Against) | N/A | N/A |
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | Newcastle United 0–2 Manchester City | League Cup |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Newcastle United 2–1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Manchester City 4–0 Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Newcastle United 1–1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Manchester City 2–0 Newcastle United | FA Cup |
Rayan Cherki is the outstanding attacking player in this fixture. He leads all key metrics for Manchester City, with 3 goals in his last four appearances, 7 key passes, and 7 big chance assists – the most for any player in this match. Cherki’s 60% shot accuracy means that 6 out of every 10 attempts hit the target, while his ability to both score and create (1 assist) makes him central to City’s offensive strategy. His clever movement, vision in tight spaces, and willingness to shoot from range all pose significant threats to a Newcastle defence that has struggled for clean sheets.
Manchester City’s superior defensive record, control of possession, and attacking depth make them deserved favourites for this League Cup semi-final. Newcastle’s attacking talent ensures they cannot be underestimated, but their defensive frailties are likely to be exposed by City’s movement and passing. The value lies with Both Teams to Score – No at 6/5 and Phil Foden to get on the scoresheet at 12/5. Expect City’s midfield, led by Cherki and Foden, to dictate play and create the decisive moments.
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