Arsenal host Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday 3rd February 2026 for the second leg of their EFL Cup semi-final, with a place at Wembley firmly on the line. The Gunners return to home soil looking to capitalise on their recent domestic form and press home any advantage, while Chelsea arrive knowing a disciplined, high-intensity display is required to overturn the tie. Kick-off is at 20:00 GMT, with a tense and finely balanced London derby expected under the lights.
| Match Details | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | League Cup |
| Matchday | Semi-final |
| Date | Tuesday 3 February 2026 |
| Kick-off Time | 20:00 |
| Venue | Emirates Stadium |
| Broadcast | Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Football |
| Market | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Full-Time Result | Draw | ★★★☆☆ |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | ★★★★☆ |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ |
Odds: 3/1 with BetMGM
Value Rating: ★★★★☆
Analysis: Arsenal are defensively robust in this competition, conceding just 3 goals and keeping 2 clean sheets. Chelsea, meanwhile, boast the tournament’s highest goal tally (11) but have struggled defensively, conceding 8 and keeping no clean sheets. Historically, this fixture is tight: 5 draws in their last 20 meetings, and Arsenal have not outscored Chelsea by more than one goal in their last five encounters. The Gunners’ efficient finishing (8 goals from 2.67 xG) may be offset by Chelsea’s superior chance creation, but both teams’ similar possession and passing stats suggest a deadlock is likely.
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Odds: 51/20 with 10Bet
Value Rating: ★★★☆☆
Analysis: While Saka is not among the top three goalscorers in the competition, he remains Arsenal’s primary attacking outlet. Arsenal have scored 8 goals from just 2.67 xG, showing a reliance on clinical finishing. Saka’s tendency to cut inside and shoot, combined with Chelsea’s record of conceding 8 goals (with no clean sheets), suggests he has a realistic chance of getting on the scoresheet. Chelsea’s defensive frailties, especially against wide players, make Saka an attractive anytime goalscorer bet at a backable price.
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Arsenal approach this tie with a strong defensive record in the League Cup, conceding only 3 goals and recording two clean sheets. Their possession average stands at 60.4%, with pass accuracy at 85.8%, reflecting their control in matches. However, their xG of 2.67 compared to 8 goals scored points to an unsustainable conversion rate, which may regress.
Chelsea, by contrast, have scored 11 goals but conceded 8, with no clean sheets. Their underlying numbers show more big chances created (13, compared to Arsenal’s 6), but also more big chances missed (8). Chelsea’s output from substitutes (5 goals) highlights their bench depth, which could be crucial in a knockout scenario.
Both teams have performed well in possession (Chelsea: 60.8%), but Arsenal’s defensive solidity is countered by Chelsea’s attacking verve. Neither side has a clear edge in form, and both show strengths that could neutralise the other.
Arsenal are likely to set up in a controlled, possession-based 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, looking to dominate midfield and play through the thirds. Their efficiency in front of goal and defensive shape will be key to stifling Chelsea’s attack.
Chelsea, under Liam Rosenior, have shown a preference for a dynamic, attacking approach, often utilising pace on the flanks and making the most of late runs from midfielders and substitutes.
Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities could see Arsenal target the space behind their full-backs, especially with Saka and Martinelli (if fit) looking to exploit those areas. Conversely, Chelsea’s ability to create big chances (13 so far) suggests they will look to draw Arsenal out and hit quickly in transition, with Garnacho and Fofana key to their attacking threat.
| Statistic | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | N/A | N/A |
| Goals Scored | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Conceded | 3 | 8 |
| xG (Expected Goals) | N/A | N/A |
| xGA (Expected Goals Against) | N/A | N/A |
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | Chelsea vs Arsenal | League Cup |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Chelsea vs Arsenal | League Cup |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Arsenal vs Chelsea | League Cup |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Chelsea vs Arsenal | League Cup |
| 23 Apr 2024 | Arsenal vs Chelsea | League Cup |
Declan Rice has become a cornerstone of Arsenal’s midfield, providing control, athleticism, and leadership at the heart of the side. Ever-present in big matches, he excels at breaking up opposition play with intelligent positioning and timely interceptions, while also driving Arsenal forward through progressive carries and incisive passing. Rice’s ability to balance defensive discipline with attacking support allows those around him greater freedom, and his growing influence in the final third adds another dimension to his game. In high-intensity fixtures, his composure, work rate, and tactical awareness make him a vital figure in Arsenal’s structure and a player whose impact often dictates the rhythm of the contest.
Q: Who is the favourite to win the Arsenal vs. Chelsea match?
A: This tie is difficult to call, but the odds and recent data point to a very close contest.
Q: What are the best betting odds for this match?
A: The best odds for the draw, while the best anytime goalscorer price is for Bukayo Saka.
Q: Where can I watch the Arsenal vs. Chelsea match?
A: The match will be broadcast on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football.
This League Cup semi-final second leg between Arsenal and Chelsea promises to be a tightly contested affair. Arsenal’s defensive solidity and efficient finishing contrast with Chelsea’s attacking flair and defensive frailties. The draw stands out as the best value bet, with a low-scoring game and both teams likely to get on the scoresheet. Expect a tactical battle, with set-pieces and substitutions potentially proving decisive.
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