Burnley vs Sunderland Predictions, Betting Tips & Match Preview
Burnley and Sunderland square off in a crucial Premier League contest as the Clarets look to spark a revival against a Black Cats side that boasts one of the division’s more resolute defences. Kick-off is set for 20:00 on Monday 2nd February 2026 at Turf Moor, with both clubs seeking to arrest recent inconsistencies and climb the league table. Below you’ll find our detailed match preview, betting tips, and all the stats you need for this relegation six-pointer.
Match Overview
| Match Details | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League |
| Matchday | 24 |
| Date | Monday 2 February 2026 |
| Kick-off Time | 20:00 |
| Venue | Turf Moor |
| Broadcast | Sky Sports Main Event |
Key Predictions & Confidence Score
| Market | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Full-Time Result | Draw | ★★★☆☆ |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | ★★★★☆ |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ |
Top Betting Tips & Value Analysis
1. Value Bet: Draw
Odds: 27/10 with BetMGM
Value Rating: ★★★★☆
Analysis: With four of the last ten meetings between these sides ending all square and both clubs struggling for cutting edge, the draw stands out as an appealing value angle. Sunderland have drawn 9 of their 23 league games (almost 40%), while Burnley have shared the points in 6 of 23 (over 25%). The Black Cats are defensively solid but have struggled to convert chances, underperforming their xG (23.78 xG, just 24 goals scored), while the Clarets have shown some fight at Turf Moor – holding Tottenham to a 2-2 draw in their last home outing. Both sides’ recent form points to a tight, nervy contest, so the 23/10 about the stalemate is generous.
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2. Player Prop Bet: Brian Brobbey to Score Anytime
Odds: 15/8 with Paddy Power
Value Rating: ★★★☆☆
Analysis: Sunderland’s attack has been profligate, but Burnley’s rearguard is the most porous in the top flight this term (44 conceded in 23 games). Brobbey, a lively presence up top, can exploit Burnley’s defensive frailties. While he hasn’t troubled the league’s top scorer charts, the Clarets’ record of conceding nearly two goals per match and their tendency to allow high-quality chances (xG against far outweighs xG for) means opportunities will come. Brobbey’s movement could make him the difference-maker in a cagey fixture.
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In-Depth Match Analysis
Recent Form and Performance
The Clarets come into this clash entrenched in the relegation zone, having won just 3 of their 23 league games. Their most recent outing was a spirited 2-2 home draw against Tottenham, a match that saw them come from behind twice. However, Burnley have the division’s worst defensive record, shipping 44 goals – almost two per match – and have just one win in their last ten league fixtures.
The Black Cats, meanwhile, sit 11th, held back by a glut of draws (9 in 23) and an attack that hasn’t fully clicked. Sunderland’s last match saw them fall 3-1 at West Ham, conceding three first-half goals. While they boast a significantly better defensive record than their hosts (26 goals conceded), their attack is underperforming: their expected goals tally (23.78) is almost identical to their actual goals (24), highlighting a lack of clinical finishing.
Tactical Breakdown
Burnley, under Scott Parker, have typically lined up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to play on the front foot at home. The Clarets attempt to compensate for their defensive issues with high energy in midfield and aggressive pressing, as shown by their 408 tackles attempted this season—among the league’s highest figures. However, this activity often masks their vulnerability in transition, where they’ve been repeatedly exposed.
Sunderland, managed by Régis Le Bris, favour a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 and are more pragmatic away from the Stadium of Light. Their approach is built on defensive discipline and quick transitions, with an emphasis on wide play. Expect the Black Cats to sit deep, soak up pressure, and look to exploit Burnley on the counter, especially as the hosts push men forward.
Key Player Matchups
- Brobbey (Sunderland) vs Burnley Centre-Backs: Brobbey’s intelligent movement and physicality could prove a handful for a Burnley backline that has struggled to contain opposition strikers. If Sunderland can get service into him, he could capitalise on Burnley’s lapses.
- Zian Flemming (Burnley) vs Trai Hume (Sunderland): Flemming is one of the more creative sparks in the Clarets’ attack, and his battle down Burnley’s left with Sunderland’s disciplined right-back Hume could be pivotal, especially if Burnley look to overload the flanks.
Head-to-Head Record & Statistical Analysis
Season Key Statistics
| Statistic | Burnley | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 19th | 11th |
| Goals Scored | 25 | 24 |
| Goals Conceded | 44 | 26 |
Last 5 Meetings
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2025 | Burnley 2-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Burnley 0-0 Sunderland | Championship |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Sunderland 1-0 Burnley | Championship |
| 31 Mar 2023 | Burnley 0-0 Sunderland | Championship |
| 22 Oct 2022 | Sunderland 2-4 Burnley | Championship |
Player Spotlight: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey is a player to watch at Turf Moor. The Dutch striker leads the line for the Black Cats and, while not among the league’s top scorers, his underlying numbers and recent performances indicate he could be ready to make a decisive impact. Brobbey offers strength, pace, and intelligent runs, and his ability to get into good positions has seen him consistently rack up xG – even if finishing has let him down at times. With Burnley’s defence conceding almost two goals per game, Brobbey’s movement and willingness to shoot could be rewarded here. Expect him to be at the heart of Sunderland’s best attacking moves.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Who is the favourite to win the Burnley vs. Sunderland match?
A: Neither side is a clear favourite, with the draw looking the most likely outcome based on both teams’ records and recent form.
Q: What are the best betting odds for this match?
A: The most appealing selections are the draw in the full-time result market and Brian Brobbey to score at any time.
Q: Where can I watch the Burnley vs. Sunderland match?
A: The match is broadcast live on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Go.
Conclusion & Key Takeaways
This looks set to be a tense affair between two sides desperate for points but struggling to find attacking consistency. Burnley’s defensive woes make them vulnerable, but Sunderland’s lack of cutting edge up front means a low-scoring draw is a real possibility. The value lies in backing the stalemate and siding with a player prop on Brobbey, who is well placed to end his goal drought against the league’s leakiest defence.
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