Real Madrid vs Alavés Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips | FootballTips

Real Madrid welcome Deportivo Alavés to the Santiago Bernabéu on Monday evening in a La Liga fixture that carries very different stakes for each side. Under the guidance of interim manager Álvaro Arbeloa, Los Blancos are desperately trying to keep their faint title hopes alive as they sit nine points adrift of league leaders Barcelona with just seven matches remaining. For the visitors, managed by Quique Sánchez Flores, this represents a crucial opportunity to pick up valuable points in their battle to avoid the drop.

The Basque outfit currently occupy 17th place in the La Liga table, precariously positioned just above the relegation zone on goal difference. With their top-flight status hanging in the balance, every remaining fixture carries monumental importance. However, facing a Real Madrid side that has historically dominated this particular fixture presents a formidable challenge that Alavés must somehow overcome if they are to secure their survival.

In this comprehensive preview, we will delve deep into both teams’ current form, analyse their head-to-head record, examine the key players who could influence the outcome, and provide our expert betting predictions complete with the best available odds from the UK’s leading bookmakers. Whether you are looking for value in the match result markets or seeking out the best prices for goal-based betting, we have got you covered with data-driven insights and professional analysis.

Our Predictions

Real Madrid vs Alavés Match Result Odds

The bookmakers have made Real Madrid overwhelming favourites for this fixture, and it is easy to see why given their dominant historical record against Alavés and the gulf in quality between the two squads. The hosts are priced as short as 1/5 with several operators, reflecting the expectation that Los Blancos will claim all three points as they chase Barcelona at the summit.

The match result market clearly illustrates the disparity between these two sides. Real Madrid’s shortest price comes via Paddy Power, Sky Bet, and BetMGM at 1/5, whilst BoyleSports and Betvictor offer a slightly more generous 2/9. For those seeking value in the away win market, BetMGM’s 11/1 represents the best available price, though we would caution against backing the visitors given their precarious league position and the quality of opposition they face.

The draw market offers more appealing returns, with Sky Bet’s 6/1 standing out as the most attractive option. However, Real Madrid’s record at the Bernabéu against sides in the bottom half of the table this season has been imperious, making the home win the logical selection despite the prohibitive odds.

Both Teams to Score Odds

The Both Teams to Score market presents an interesting dilemma for punters. Whilst Alavés have managed to find the net with reasonable regularity this season (35 goals in 31 matches), their record against the league’s elite sides tells a different story. When facing teams in the top four, Alavés have often struggled to break down well-organised defences.

The odds suggest the bookmakers are slightly favouring both teams finding the net, with BoyleSports offering the shortest price on ‘Yes’ at 8/11. However, our analysis points towards a ‘No’ bet in this market. Real Madrid’s defensive record under Álvaro Arbeloa has been solid, conceding just 29 goals in 31 league matches, and their recent head-to-head encounters with Alavés have often seen the visitors fail to score.

For those looking to back ‘No’ in the BTTS market, Betfred’s 4/5 represents the most attractive option available. This selection aligns with our prediction that Real Madrid will keep a clean sheet whilst securing a comfortable victory.

Team News

Real Madrid: Under interim manager Álvaro Arbeloa, Real Madrid have maintained their challenge at the top of the table despite the managerial change. The Spanish coach has a wealth of talent at his disposal, with Thibaut Courtois providing reliable goalkeeping behind a defence that includes Dani Carvajal, Antonio Rüdiger, Éder Militão, and David Alaba. The recent acquisition of Trent Alexander-Arnold adds further quality to the backline.

In midfield, Arbeloa can call upon the exceptional talents of Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, and Jude Bellingham, with Dani Ceballos providing experience and composure. The attacking options are mouth-watering, with Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, and Rodrygo forming one of the most potent forward lines in world football. Arda Güler and Brahim Díaz offer additional creativity from the bench.

Deportivo Alavés: Quique Sánchez Flores faces a significant challenge in keeping his side in the top flight. The experienced manager will look to Antonio Sivera to produce heroics in goal, whilst the defensive unit featuring Tenaglia, Ballestero, Jon Pacheco, and Facundo Garcés will need to be at their very best to repel the Real Madrid attack.

In midfield, the combination of Ander Guevara, Jon Guridi, Denis Suárez, and Carles Aleñà provides technical quality, though they will be severely tested by their illustrious opponents. Antonio Blanco adds further solidity. The attacking threat comes from Ibrahim Diabaté, Toni Martínez, Mariano Díaz, and Abde Rebbach, though scoring opportunities are likely to be limited against such formidable opposition.

La Liga Standings

The current La Liga table provides crucial context for this fixture. Barcelona lead the way with 79 points from 31 matches, boasting an impressive record of 26 wins, 1 draw, and just 4 defeats. Their goal difference of +52 demonstrates their dominance at the summit.

Real Madrid sit second with 70 points, having won 22, drawn 4, and lost 5 of their 31 fixtures. Their goal difference of +36 is the second-best in the division, though they have conceded more goals than Barcelona whilst scoring significantly fewer. The nine-point gap to the leaders means Los Blancos cannot afford any slip-ups if they are to maintain their title aspirations.

Villarreal occupy third place with 61 points, followed by Atlético Madrid on 57 points. Real Betis round out the top five with 46 points. These positions look relatively settled, though the battle for Champions League qualification remains intriguing.

At the bottom of the table, Alavés find themselves in 17th position with 33 points from their 31 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats has left them precariously positioned above the relegation zone. With a goal difference of -11 and just 35 goals scored all season, their struggles in front of goal are evident. Every remaining fixture is now a cup final for Sánchez Flores and his players.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical record between these two sides heavily favours Real Madrid, as one might expect given the disparity in resources and stature. In 18 La Liga meetings, Los Blancos have emerged victorious on 15 occasions, with Alavés managing just 2 wins and 1 draw.

The goal difference in these encounters is stark: Real Madrid have netted 44 times whilst conceding just 11. This demonstrates not only Real Madrid’s attacking prowess but also their defensive solidity when facing the Basque outfit.

Recent encounters have continued this trend. In December 2025, Real Madrid secured a 2-1 away victory at the Mendizorrotza Stadium. Earlier in 2025, they recorded a narrow 1-0 win on their travels to Alavés. Looking further back to September 2024, a thrilling 3-2 victory at the Bernabéu showcased Real Madrid’s ability to edge tight contests.

This dominance extends beyond just results. Real Madrid have often controlled the tempo and territory in these fixtures, restricting Alavés to sporadic counter-attacking opportunities. The psychological advantage this brings cannot be underestimated, particularly with the match being played at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu.

Match Analysis & Tactical Breakdown

Álvaro Arbeloa is likely to set his Real Madrid side up in their customary 4-3-3 formation, with Courtois protected by a back four of Carvajal, Rüdiger, Militão, and Alaba or Alexander-Arnold. The midfield trio of Tchouaméni, Valverde, and Bellingham offers the perfect blend of defensive protection, box-to-box energy, and creative quality.

In attack, the combination of Mbappé’s clinical finishing, Vinícius Júnior’s trickery and direct running, and Rodrygo’s intelligent movement will pose endless problems for the Alavés defence. Expect Real Madrid to dominate possession, patiently probing for openings and looking to exploit the spaces that Alavés will inevitably leave when attempting to press or counter.

For Alavés, Quique Sánchez Flores will surely adopt a pragmatic approach, likely employing a compact 4-4-2 or 4-5-1 formation designed to frustrate the hosts and limit clear-cut opportunities. The key will be maintaining defensive discipline whilst looking to exploit set-piece situations or rare counter-attacking moments.

The midfield battle will be crucial. If Guevara, Guridi, and Suárez can disrupt Real Madrid’s rhythm and prevent the likes of Bellingham and Valverde from dictating play, Alavés may be able to keep the scoreline respectable. However, the quality gap in this area of the pitch is significant, and Real Madrid’s technical superiority should ultimately tell.

Key Players to Watch

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): The French superstar has been in sensational form since arriving in the Spanish capital. His pace, power, and predatory instincts in front of goal make him the primary threat to any opposition defence. Alavés will need to double up on him to have any chance of containment.

Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid): The England international has been a revelation in midfield, contributing goals, assists, and tireless work rate. His ability to arrive late in the box and his composure in possession will be vital to unlocking the Alavés defence.

Antonio Sivera (Alavés): The Alavés goalkeeper may well be the busiest player on the pitch. His shot-stopping ability and command of the penalty area will be crucial if the visitors are to avoid a heavy defeat. A string of fine saves could keep his side in the contest.

Denis Suárez (Alavés): The experienced midfielder possesses the technical quality to cause problems on the rare occasions Alavés have possession. His set-piece delivery could represent their best route to a goal.

Our Top Betting Tips

Having analysed the available data, the form of both teams, their head-to-head record, and the tactical matchups, we have identified several betting angles that offer value for this fixture.

Primary Tip: Real Madrid to Win to Nil — The combination of Real Madrid’s defensive solidity and Alavés’ struggles in front of goal against top opposition makes this an appealing selection. The hosts have kept numerous clean sheets this season, and with Alavés managing just 35 goals in 31 matches, the visitors may find opportunities limited.

Value Tip: Under 2.5 Goals — Whilst Real Madrid possess devastating attacking quality, recent meetings between these sides have been tighter than the overall H2H record might suggest. The December 2025 encounter finished 2-1, whilst the April 2025 meeting was a 1-0 affair. If Alavés successfully adopt a defensive approach, this could be a lower-scoring contest than the odds suggest.

Correct Score: 2-0 to Real Madrid — This result line offers a solid balance between probability and price. Real Madrid should have enough quality to break down a stubborn Alavés defence on at least two occasions, whilst their own defensive organisation should see them keep a clean sheet.

Anytime Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappé — The French forward is the most likely candidate to open the scoring or find the net at any point in the match. His movement and finishing make him a constant threat, and he will be eager to add to his impressive goal tally for the season.

Conclusion

This fixture represents a classic case of a dominant force against a struggler fighting for survival. Real Madrid, under Álvaro Arbeloa’s stewardship, simply cannot afford to drop points if they are to maintain any hope of catching Barcelona at the top of the table. The quality throughout their squad, from Courtois in goal to Mbappé in attack, should prove too much for Alavés to handle.

For the visitors, the task is monumental but not impossible. Quique Sánchez Flores is an experienced manager who knows how to organise a defence and frustrate superior opponents. If Alavés can remain disciplined, take their limited chances when they arise, and hope for an off-day from their illustrious opponents, they may yet escape with a valuable point.

However, the statistics, form, and historical record all point towards a comfortable home victory. Real Madrid’s dominance in this fixture is well-established, and there is little to suggest that pattern will change on Monday evening. We anticipate a professional performance from the hosts, potentially with a clean sheet thrown in for good measure.

Whatever your betting preference, this La Liga encounter promises to deliver drama and excitement. Be sure to gamble responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose. Good luck with your selections!

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