Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds
St. James’ Park hosts one of the stranger fixtures of the Premier League weekend: 12th against fourth, with the side in fourth newly promoted and still unbeaten. Our Newcastle vs Hull City prediction asks whether Hull’s start can survive its hardest test yet.
Newcastle have five points from four games, scoring seven and conceding eight — four of those in Monday’s 4-1 defeat at Leeds United. Hull have eight points, winning twice and drawing twice, with five scored and only two conceded in the Premier League table. Newcastle are 4/7 favourites, Hull 4/1 and the draw 16/5.
The tension is between reputation and evidence. Hull have already drawn 2-2 at Chelsea and beaten Manchester United 2-0, so the promoted side’s numbers are not a soft-schedule illusion. Newcastle, though, have scored in all four league games and usually make this a long afternoon for visitors.
Newcastle vs Hull City Predictions
| Market | Selection | William Hill | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | Yes | 4/6 | 3/5 |
| Match Result | Newcastle | 4/7 | 2/5 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | 4/7 | 2/5 |
Both Teams To Score is the lead call: Newcastle have scored in all four league games and conceded in three, and Hull have scored in three of their four, including twice at Stamford Bridge. Newcastle are the result selection but at low confidence — a side that conceded four at Leeds on Monday is hard to back at 4/7 against unbeaten opposition.
Team News
Newcastle’s injury list is the longest in the division this week. Anthony Elanga is waiting on an MRI for a hamstring problem, and Amar Dedic (hamstring), Nico Gonzalez (concussion), Ewen Jaouen (ankle), Joelinton (thigh), Dan Burn (ankle) and William Osula (ankle) are all ruled out, with Jacob Ramsey rated 25% after going down in the warm-up at Leeds. Dedic’s absence could hand Tino Livramento his first start since calf surgery. Newcastle have used 4-2-3-1 in every match this season, and the response to a 4-1 defeat is likelier to be personnel than shape — Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy both started at Elland Road.
Hull are short too, particularly in defence: Nobel Mendy is in concussion protocol, and Charlie Hughes (pubic bone), Jack Butland (arm), Eliot Matazo (knee), Darko Gyabi (groin), Ilyas Ansah (back) and Hidemasa Morita (groin) are all out. Matt Targett and Paddy McNair are 50% doubts, Targett having twisted an ankle in training. Hull have alternated 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1, using the back five against Chelsea, Manchester United and Aston Villa — expect the same here.
Head-to-Head
There is no meaningful recent history between these clubs. Their only meeting in the last decade came in the League Cup in November 2016, when Hull won on penalties after a 1-1 draw — long before either squad took its current shape, so the record tells you nothing about Saturday.
Where the Game Will Be Decided
Newcastle’s problem is specific: they have conceded eight league goals, and four arrived in one Monday night at Leeds. Before that they had lost once in six in all competitions. Whether that defeat was a bad evening or a crack decides this fixture — Hull’s two away performances, a 1-0 win at Coventry and a 2-2 draw at Chelsea, will test it.
Hull’s shape is the other anchor. In a 5-4-1 they have kept clean sheets against Manchester United and Aston Villa and held Chelsea for long spells; the trade-off is five goals in four games. If Newcastle score first, Hull have to chase a game for the first time this season, and nobody yet knows what that looks like.
Newcastle vs Hull City Odds
| Selection | William Hill | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match Result | ||
| Newcastle | 4/7 | 63.6% |
| Draw | 16/5 | 23.8% |
| Hull City | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Both Teams To Score | ||
| Yes | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| No | 21/20 | 48.8% |
| Total Goals | ||
| Over 2.5 | 4/7 | 63.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 5/4 | 44.4% |
Newcastle at 4/7 is an implied 63.6% — William Hill trusting home advantage and squad depth over Hull’s unbeaten start. The goals markets expect action: Over 2.5 is 4/7 and Both Teams To Score Yes 4/6, which sits oddly against a Hull side that has conceded twice all season.
Betting Tips
Both Teams To Score Yes at 4/6 is the lead selection. Newcastle have scored in all four league games and conceded in three; Hull have scored in three of four and put two past Chelsea away. The last two Newcastle home games finished 2-2, and both sides finding a goal is the most repeated pattern in either team’s season.
Newcastle at 4/7 is the result call, but at two-star confidence: the price assumes a reaction to Monday’s 4-1 defeat at Leeds, and Hull have given nobody an easy afternoon yet. Over 2.5 at 4/7 completes the card — three of Newcastle’s four league games have gone over, though Hull’s four have produced seven goals in total, so it stays modest.
Where the Value Is
The draw at 16/5 is the interesting number. Newcastle have drawn both home league games 2-2, and Hull have drawn two of their four — an implied 23.8% against the two most common results in Newcastle’s season.
The combination is Newcastle & Both Teams To Score at 15/8, an implied 34.8%. Both teams have scored in three of Newcastle’s four games, but the selection also needs the win and Newcastle have one in four — the price is the leap. The one to avoid is Under 2.5 Goals at 5/4 — it needs Hull’s season pattern to override Newcastle’s, and Newcastle’s games are averaging 3.8 goals.
Prediction
Hull’s start is real, but St. James’ Park is a step up from anything they have faced, and Newcastle’s home games keep finishing level. The home edge should tell late.
Prediction: Newcastle United 2-1 Hull City. Consistent with Newcastle as the result selection, with Both Teams To Score, and with Over 2.5.
Newcastle vs Hull City: Your Questions Answered
What time is Newcastle vs Hull City?
Kick-off is 15:00 BST on Saturday 19 September 2026 at St. James’ Park.
Where are Newcastle and Hull City in the Premier League table?
Hull are fourth with eight points from four games; Newcastle are 12th with five.
How could Newcastle line up against Hull City?
Newcastle have used 4-2-3-1 in every match this season. Elanga, Dedic, Gonzalez, Jaouen, Joelinton, Burn and Osula are all out, Ramsey is 25%, and Livramento could make his first start since calf surgery in place of Dedic.
How could Hull City line up against Newcastle?
Hull have switched between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1, using a back five against Chelsea, Manchester United and Aston Villa. Mendy, Hughes, Butland, Matazo, Gyabi, Ansah and Morita are out; Targett and McNair are 50% doubts.
What are the odds for Newcastle vs Hull City?
William Hill price Newcastle at 4/7, the draw at 16/5 and Hull City at 4/1. Both Teams To Score Yes is 4/6, Over 2.5 Goals is 4/7, and Newcastle & Both Teams To Score is 15/8. Prices can move before kick-off.
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