Manchester United hold a 3-0 advantage going into the second leg of their Europa League semi-final against Athletic Bilbao on Thursday.
Casemiro’s opener and a brace from Bruno Fernandes has put the Red Devils firmly in control of the tie ahead of the return game at Old Trafford, which kicks off at 8pm.
Below we provide in-depth analysis, predictions, and betting tips for the clash between the two teams vying to face either Bodo/Glimt or Tottenham in the final at Bilbao’s San Mames stadium on 21st May.
Tip 1
Bilbao started well at home and must do so again at Old Trafford. However, a three-goal deficit feels almost impossible to overcome and the tie could fizzle out, so expect the hosts to maintain their unbeaten home record in Europe.
United’s big names should be fresh after Ruben Amorim rotated for his team’s 4-3 defeat at Brentford on Sunday and they may look to play a cagey game to limit any chances of a freak turnaround.
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Tip 2
United’s class act all season has been Fernandes, who netted twice in Spain to all-but end the tie.
The Portuguese has now scored seven goals in his 12 European outings this term and appears a strong candidate to break the deadlock on Thursday.
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It’s no secret that United have endured a miserable domestic campaign and they sit 15th in the Premier League table after 35 games.
Much has been made of Amorim’s reluctance to stray from his favoured 3-4-3 formation – although it could be tweaked to a 3-4-2-1 set-up for Thursday – despite only winning six of his 24 league games in charge.
However, his team have produced their best form in the Europa League. They are still unbeaten at home and roared back from 4-2 down to beat Lyon 5-4 after extra-time in the quarter-final.
That was the sixth game in seven Europa League home ties this season that United have conceded, so even though results have generally been good in this competition, they have still shown their defensive vulnerabilities.
Admittedly, injuries have not helped Amorim, with Lisandro Martinez and Joshua Zirkzee out for the season, Matthijs de Ligt is unlikely to play again in 2024-25, while Diogo Dalot’s next outing might be in the final of this competition, presuming the Red Devils qualify.
Man United Predicted XI: Onana; Yoro, Maguire, Lindelof; Mazraoui, Ugarte, Casemiro, Dorgu; Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund.
Athletic Bilbao have looked poised to return to Europe’s top table for most of the season.
They sit fourth and are almost guaranteed a Champions League spot after La Liga was confirmed as the other league alongside the Premier League to have five teams that will qualify automatically.
They responded to their first-leg defeat with Sunday’s battling 0-0 draw against Basque rivals Real Sociedad and have lost only one of their last five away games in all competitions, the outlier being a 1-0 defeat at Real Madrid.
Three of those have been 0-0 draws, while one or both sides have failed to score in that recent run of five road games.
Traditionally a swashbuckling outfit, coach Ernesto Valverde has tightened his team up but will need to change his defence following Dani Vivian’s red card in the first game.
Nico Williams was a doubt with a muscular problem but has returned to training and will need to shine if his team are to mount an unlikely comeback and qualify for next month’s final on home soil.
His input could be especially crucial due to playmaker Oihan Sancet being unavailable through a hamstring injury.
Athletic Bilbao Predicted XI: Simon; Gorosabel, Paredes, Alvarez, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar; I. Williams, Berenguer, N. Williams; Sannadi.
This will be the fourth time the teams have met and all of those games have been in the Europa League.
The duo famously clashed in the last 16 of the 2011-12 edition of this tournament, when Marcelo Bielsa’s brilliant young side won 3-2 at Old Trafford and then 2-1 at home, eventually losing 3-0 to Atletico Madrid in the final.
Goals are common in these matches, with over 2.5 scored in their previous three meetings, but this might be a tighter affair.
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