Levante vs Valencia Predictions, Betting Tips & Match Preview

Dean Smith 04 Mar 2026

Levante and Valencia renew their city rivalry in a La Liga clash that carries significant implications at the foot of the table. With just five points separating these neighbours, both will be desperate for a result to ease their relegation concerns. The match is set for Sunday 15th February 2026, with kick-off at 17:30 GMT at the Estadi Ciutat de València. Below, we break down the best bets, tactical nuances, and key players to watch in this high-stakes derby.

Match Overview

Match Details	Information
Competition	La Liga
Matchday	24
Date	Saunday 15 February 2026
Kick-off Time	17:30 GMT
Venue	Estadi Ciutat de València

Key Predictions & Confidence Score

Market	Prediction	Confidence
Full-Time Result	Draw	★★★☆☆
Correct Score	1-1	★★★☆☆
Both Teams to Score	Yes	★★★★☆
Over/Under 2.5 Goals	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆

Top Betting Tips & Value Analysis

Value Bet: Draw (Full-Time Result)
Odds: 9/4 with Bet365
Value Rating: ★★★★☆
Analysis: This local derby is typically a cagey affair, and both sides have struggled to convert chances this season. Levante and Valencia have drawn four of their last eleven meetings, and both are underperforming their expected goals (xG) figures. Levante boast marginally better shot accuracy (34.85% of attempts on target) than Valencia (28.21%), but Valencia edge possession and pass accuracy, indicating a likely midfield battle. With neither side in convincing form—Levante have won just once in their last five home meetings with Valencia, while Valencia have drawn eight of 23 matches this season—the stalemate offers strong value at a generous 9/4.
Player Prop Bet: José Luis Morales Nogales to be Carded
Odds: 5/2 with Betfred
Value Rating: ★★★★☆
Analysis: Morales is Levante’s main attacking threat but also a combative presence, picking up several cautions this campaign. Levante have received 59 yellow cards (the highest in this fixture), and in a high-pressure derby, tempers are likely to flare. Morales, often tasked with leading the line and pressing from the front, is no stranger to robust challenges and tactical fouls. With both teams fighting for survival and the referee likely to keep a tight grip, Morales to be carded is a value proposition at 5/2.

In-Depth Match Analysis

Recent Form and Performance

Levante sit 19th in La Liga with just 18 points from 22 matches, having won only four times this season. They have scored 26 goals but conceded 38, underlining persistent defensive frailties. Valencia, meanwhile, are 17th on 23 points after 23 games, and have a similar defensive record (37 goals conceded). Neither side has enjoyed a run of form—Levante’s last six have yielded just one win, while Valencia have picked up only five wins all season. Both teams’ negative goal differences (-12 for Levante, -14 for Valencia) reflect their struggles at both ends of the pitch.

Tactical Breakdown

Levante tend to play a direct, physical game—evident in their higher tackle count (375 attempted, 222 won) and lower possession average (41.45%). They rely on swift transitions and have created more big chances (38) than Valencia (29), yet wastefulness in front of goal is a recurring problem (32 big chances missed). Valencia, by contrast, prefer a more possession-based style (48.27% average), with greater passing accuracy (81.61%) and a tendency to build from the back. However, their shot accuracy is poor (only 28.21% of shots on target), and despite creating decent chances (xG of 29.39), they have found the net just 23 times, suggesting a lack of clinical edge up front. Expect Levante to press high and disrupt, while Valencia look to control the ball and probe patiently.

Key Player Matchups

Kareem Tunde Ruiz (Levante) vs. José Luis Gayà Peña (Valencia): Levante’s dynamic attacker will likely face off against Valencia’s experienced full back. Ruiz’s direct running and willingness to take on his man (Levante have completed 142 successful dribbles) will test Gayà’s positional discipline and defensive nous.
Lucas Ezequiel Beltrán (Valencia) vs. Pablo Cuñat Campos (Levante): Beltrán, operating as a creative midfielder, will be tasked with unlocking Levante’s defence, while Cuñat Campos, Levante’s dependable goalkeeper, will need to be alert to Valencia’s attempts from range and through balls. The outcome of this battle could determine whether Valencia can capitalise on their superior xG.

Head-to-Head Record & Statistical Analysis

Statistic	Levante	Valencia
League Position	19th	17th
Goals Scored	26	23
Goals Conceded	38	37

Last 5 Meetings

Date	Result	Competition
21 Nov 2025	Valencia 1-0 Levante	La Liga
30 Apr 2022	Valencia 1-1 Levante	La Liga
20 Dec 2021	Levante 3-4 Valencia	La Liga
12 Mar 2021	Levante 1-0 Valencia	La Liga
13 Sep 2020	Valencia 4-2 Levante	La Liga

Player Spotlight: Arnaut Danjuma

Valencia’s Arnaut Danjuma is capable of producing moments of quality that can turn a match. Although goals have been hard to come by for Valencia, Danjuma’s pace, directness, and ability to beat defenders (a key reason why Valencia have 175 successful dribbles this season) make him a constant threat on the counter. In recent matches, he has been involved in several of Valencia’s best attacking moves and his ability to stretch play will be crucial if Valencia are to break down a Levante side that will look to defend deep and hit on the break. Danjuma’s match-up against Levante’s full-backs and his ability to convert chances—something Valencia desperately need—could be decisive.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Who is the favourite to win the Levante vs. Valencia match?
A: The bookmakers have this as a close contest, but the draw currently offers the best value based on the teams’ similar form and head-to-head record.

Q: What are the best betting odds for this match?
A: The strongest value selections are the Draw in the Full-Time Result market and José Luis Morales Nogales to be carded in the player prop market.

Q: Where can I watch the Levante vs. Valencia match?
A: The match will be broadcast live in the UK on La Liga TV and selected streaming services.

Conclusion & Key Takeaways

This Valencian derby is a true six-pointer in the relegation scrap, with both Levante and Valencia desperate for points. The data points to a close, low-scoring contest with both sides lacking a clinical edge and often cancelling each other out. Our key predictions are for a 1-1 draw and both teams to score, with value found in the draw market and a card for Morales. Arnaut Danjuma stands out as a player who could make the difference for Valencia, but overall expect a tactical, tense affair where a share of the spoils looks likely.

Disclaimer & Responsible Gambling

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