Leeds vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds
Elland Road on Sunday hosts the Premier League’s surprise package of the opening month against its biggest underachiever. Our Leeds vs Crystal Palace prediction asks whether Palace’s European winning habit can translate into a domestic one.
Leeds are third, unbeaten, with seven scored and three conceded in the Premier League table, and put four past Newcastle on Monday. Palace are 16th on three points, six scored and 11 conceded, and have lost three of four — though they won 4-0 in the Europa League on Thursday. Leeds are 8/11 favourites, Palace 17/5 and the draw 13/5.
The contrast is between consistency and volatility. Leeds have taken points from every game without ever running away with one until Monday; Palace have been beaten 4-1 by Manchester City and beaten 3-2 at Fulham in the same month. Something in Palace’s season is not adding up.
Leeds vs Crystal Palace Predictions
| Market | Selection | William Hill | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Leeds United | 8/11 | 3/5 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | 4/6 | 2/5 |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes | 4/6 | 2/5 |
Leeds are the result selection: unbeaten, at home, and fresh from their best performance of the season. Over 2.5 leans on Palace’s defensive record — 11 conceded in four — and Leeds’ seven-goal week. Both Teams To Score is the modest leg, because Palace have scored six despite their results and Leeds have conceded in three of four.
Team News
Leeds are without Joe Rodon, a key defender out with a hamstring injury until mid-October, Harry Wilson, ruled out with a thigh injury suffered in the previous match, and Mateo Joseph, whose ACL injury is long-term. Beyond those three the squad is clean. Dominic Calvert-Lewin led the line in Monday’s 4-1 win over Newcastle. Leeds have used a back three in every league game — 3-5-2 in the last two — and had no midweek fixture, so they arrive rested.
Crystal Palace’s list is heavier than their table position suggests: Axel Disasi is suspended after his red card, and Chadi Riad (knee, long-term), Jean-Philippe Mateta (thigh) and Dean Henderson (ankle) are all out until after the international break — a first-choice centre-back, striker and goalkeeper missing together. Palace played on Thursday, beating Lech Poznan 4-0 in the Europa League with a changed side, so the question is legs as much as availability three days later.
Head-to-Head
| Date | Fixture | Score | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Crystal Palace vs Leeds | 0-0 | No |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Leeds vs Crystal Palace | 4-1 | Yes |
| 9 Apr 2023 | Leeds vs Crystal Palace | 1-5 | Yes |
| 9 Oct 2022 | Crystal Palace vs Leeds | 2-1 | Yes |
| 25 Apr 2022 | Crystal Palace vs Leeds | 0-0 | No |
| 30 Nov 2021 | Leeds vs Crystal Palace | 1-0 | No |
| 8 Feb 2021 | Leeds vs Crystal Palace | 2-0 | No |
| 7 Nov 2020 | Crystal Palace vs Leeds | 4-1 | Yes |
This fixture does extremes. The last eight meetings include a 4-1 Leeds win, a 5-1 Palace win at Elland Road, and two goalless draws — there is no typical scoreline to lean on. Leeds won this exact fixture 4-1 last December; Palace won here 5-1 in April 2023.
The more useful split is recency: the two meetings last season produced a 4-1 Leeds home win and a 0-0 at Selhurst Park. Home advantage has mattered, and Leeds have it.
Where the Game Will Be Decided
Leeds’ week is the anchor: 4-1 against Newcastle on Monday, and three scored at Chelsea in a 6-3 League Cup defeat before that — seven goals in two games, against a defence that has conceded 11 in four. Palace have not kept a league clean sheet all season, and Leeds have scored in all four of theirs.
The counter is Palace’s own attack. Six league goals in a struggling side is not nothing — they scored three at Fulham and two against Ipswich — and Thursday’s 4-0, however rotated, keeps confidence up. Leeds’ back three has looked secure, but it has not faced a forward line with this much to prove.
Leeds vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Selection | William Hill | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match Result | ||
| Leeds United | 8/11 | 57.9% |
| Draw | 13/5 | 27.8% |
| Crystal Palace | 17/5 | 22.7% |
| Both Teams To Score | ||
| Yes | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| No | 21/20 | 48.8% |
| Total Goals | ||
| Over 2.5 | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 1/1 | 50.0% |
Leeds at 8/11 is an implied 57.9% — William Hill backing the table over Palace’s European form. The goals markets sit on the fence: Over 2.5 at 4/6, Both Teams To Score Yes at 4/6, which reflects a fixture with a history of both 0-0s and 4-1s.
Betting Tips
Leeds at 8/11 is the lead selection. Unbeaten in four, seven goals scored across their last two games, at home against the division’s leakiest defence — the case is strong. What holds it at three stars is that Palace’s results and performances have not matched, and sides like that eventually correct.
Over 2.5 at 4/6 is the supporting call. Palace’s four league games have produced 17 goals, and Leeds arrive off a nine-goal League Cup tie and a 4-1 win — but their league season had been low-scoring before this week, so it stays at two stars. Both Teams To Score Yes at 4/6 completes the card on Palace’s six goals in four.
Where the Value Is
Palace’s 22.7% is the number worth dwelling on. A side that won 3-2 at Fulham and just scored four in Europe, priced at under one chance in four, against a Leeds team whose season totals are flattered by one Monday night — there is a case the market has overcorrected.
The combination is Leeds & Both Teams To Score at 12/5, an implied 29.4% for the shape of Palace’s 3-2 games. The one to avoid is Under 2.5 Goals at evens — the head-to-head serves up two 0-0s, but neither current side plays like that.
Prediction
Leeds have the rest, the form and the home crowd; Palace have the unpredictability. Over 90 minutes the more coherent side should have too much, with goals at both ends.
Prediction: Leeds United 2-1 Crystal Palace. Consistent with Leeds as the result selection, with Over 2.5, and with Both Teams To Score.
Leeds vs Crystal Palace: Your Questions Answered
What time is Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
Kick-off is 14:00 BST on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Elland Road.
Where are Leeds and Crystal Palace in the Premier League table?
Leeds are third with eight points, unbeaten; Crystal Palace are 16th with three points from four games.
How could Leeds line up against Crystal Palace?
Leeds have used a back three all season, 3-5-2 in the last two league games. Rodon, Wilson and Mateo Joseph are out; Calvert-Lewin led the line against Newcastle on Monday.
How could Crystal Palace line up against Leeds?
Palace have used 3-4-2-1 in the league. Disasi is suspended, and Riad, Mateta and Henderson are all out; they made changes for Thursday’s 4-0 win over Lech Poznan, so the league side should be fresh enough.
What are the odds for Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
William Hill price Leeds at 8/11, the draw at 13/5 and Crystal Palace at 17/5. Both Teams To Score Yes is 4/6, Over 2.5 Goals is 4/6, and Leeds & Both Teams To Score is 12/5. Prices can move before kick-off.
More from FootballTips: Over/Under 2.5 Goals Tips · Premier League Predictions · This weekend’s match previews
