Athletic Bilbao welcome Real Sociedad to San Mamés on Sunday 1st February 2026 in a Basque derby that promises intensity and local pride. Bilbao, sitting comfortably in mid-table, will look to leverage their strong home form and physical style to unsettle their neighbours, while Real Sociedad aim to stay in touch with the European qualification spots and rely on quick, technical play. Kick-off is at 20:00 GMT, with a fiercely competitive La Liga clash expected in Bilbao.
| Match Details | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | La Liga |
| Matchday | 22 |
| Date | Sunday 1 February 2026 |
| Kick-off Time | 20:00 GMT |
| Venue | San Mamés |
| Broadcast | LaLigaTV, Premier Sports |
| Market | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Full-Time Result | Draw | ★★★★☆ |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | ★★★☆☆ |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ |
Odds: 11/5 with Betfred
Value Rating: ★★★★☆
Analysis: The draw stands out as the value option, with both teams exhibiting tightly matched records over their last 18 league encounters (eight wins for Sociedad, six for Bilbao, and four draws). Neither side has found consistent winning form in the current campaign – Athletic Bilbao have drawn just three of their 21 fixtures but have also suffered 11 defeats, whereas Real Sociedad have drawn six times. The last five head-to-heads feature two draws, and both sides have scored a similar number of goals this season, with Bilbao netting 20 and Sociedad 29. With both teams struggling for clean sheets (just six between them all season), a cagey, hard-fought stalemate is highly plausible.
Betfred
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Odds: 13/2 with Betway
Value Rating: ★★★☆☆
Analysis: Guruzeta is emerging as Bilbao’s primary goal threat, having impressed in recent home fixtures. With the home side underperforming their expected goals by a wide margin but still creating plenty of chances (Athletic have 30.98 xG for just 20 goals scored), Guruzeta is likely to be at the centre of any breakthrough. Sociedad have kept just one clean sheet all season, making them particularly vulnerable to conceding first. At 13/2, there’s strong value for those backing Bilbao’s forward to break the deadlock.
Betway
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Athletic Bilbao enter this Basque derby languishing in 13th, with only one win from their last five league matches. Their home form has been patchy, with defensive frailties on display – 30 goals conceded from 21 matches (1.43 per game) and just five clean sheets. Despite this, Bilbao continue to create chances, leading the xG charts between these two sides but consistently failing to convert opportunities into goals.
Real Sociedad, currently 8th, have also struggled for consistency but are more clinical in front of goal. They have scored 29 times from an xG of 25.88, outperforming their expected tally and demonstrating sharp finishing. Their away record is mixed but they have shown a knack for scoring even when not dominating possession (average 50.02% this season).
Athletic Bilbao typically approach this fixture with an energetic, high-pressing style, looking to force turnovers and attack quickly through the flanks. However, their inefficiency in front of goal is a persistent problem, and their 80.63% pass accuracy suggests an aggressive, risk-taking approach that can lead to turnovers.
Real Sociedad are more measured, favouring possession-based football (82.35% pass accuracy) and building attacks through patient play and short passing. They have been especially effective at converting chances into goals, thanks to a fluid front line and a midfield adept at threading incisive balls into the box. Expect Sociedad to try and control the midfield and exploit Bilbao’s defensive lapses, especially in transition.
| Statistic | Athletic Bilbao | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 13 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 20 | 29 |
| Goals Conceded | 30 | 29 |
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2025 | Real Sociedad 3-2 Athletic Bilbao | La Liga |
| 4 May 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-0 Athletic Bilbao | La Liga |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 30 Sep 2023 | Real Sociedad 3-0 Athletic Bilbao | La Liga |
With no individual from either side featuring among the league’s top scorers, Takefusa Kubo stands out for his creative influence in the Sociedad attack. While not their leading marksman, Kubo has contributed consistently through assists and key passes, helping Sociedad rack up 19 assists—almost double Bilbao’s tally. His agility and technical prowess allow him to unlock stubborn defences, and he will be tasked with threading passes through Bilbao’s back line. Given Bilbao’s tendency to concede (30 goals in 21 games), Kubo’s vision and delivery could be decisive.
This Basque derby is set to be fiercely contested, with both teams arriving in inconsistent form but carrying distinct strengths. Athletic Bilbao’s inefficiency in front of goal is offset by their relentless chance creation, while Real Sociedad’s clinical finishing and effective team play make them a threat even when not on top. The draw represents the best value given their head-to-head record and current form, while Gorka Guruzeta offers appeal in the first goalscorer market. Expect a tight, tactical contest possibly settled by a moment of individual brilliance or a defensive lapse.
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