A raucous European atmosphere awaits as Liverpool travel to the south of France to face Marseille in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off is at 20:00 GMT on Wednesday 21st January 2026, with the iconic Orange Vélodrome set to provide one of the competition’s most intimidating backdrops. Marseille will look to feed off their home support to unsettle the Reds, while Liverpool arrive intent on imposing their trademark intensity on the tie.
| Match Details | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | Champions League |
| Matchday | 7 |
| Date | Wednesday 21 January 2026 |
| Kick-off Time | 20:00 GMT |
| Venue | Stade Vélodrome, Marseille |
| Broadcast | BT Sport 2 / BT Sport App |
| Market | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Full-Time Result | Liverpool Win | ★★★★☆ |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | ★★★★☆ |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Over | ★★★☆☆ |
Analysis: Liverpool’s attacking metrics in this competition are outstanding, with an average xG of 14.32 compared to Marseille’s 5.89, and a sharp 54.41% shot accuracy. While both teams have netted 11 goals each, Liverpool’s higher shot volume (110 shots to Marseille’s 77) and chance creation (26 big chances created) indicate greater attacking threat. However, both sides have also conceded 8 goals from 6 group games, demonstrating defensive vulnerabilities. Marseille’s clinical forwards, particularly Paixao and Greenwood, have consistently found the net against strong opposition. Combining Liverpool’s firepower with Marseille’s ability to score at home, this selection offers excellent value at 5/2.
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Analysis: Szoboszlai leads Liverpool with 17 big chance assists and has delivered multiple key passes in recent matches. His set piece influence is significant, with several assists from corners and free kicks. Facing a Marseille side that has conceded in half their home games, Szoboszlai’s creativity and passing accuracy (88.08%) make him a prime candidate to supply at least one assist, especially given Liverpool’s movement in the final third and Marseille’s susceptibility to well-worked set plays.
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Liverpool approach this tie having won 4 and lost 2 of their group games, scoring 13 and conceding 8 (win rate 67%). Their recent attacking displays have been varied: a 5-0 demolition (with 14 shots on target from 18 attempts), a more wasteful 1-1 draw (27 shots, 3.58 xG, but only 1 goal), and a 1-1 with 12 shots. This suggests Liverpool are consistently creating, but can sometimes be profligate in front of goal.
Marseille have been less consistent, winning 3 and losing 3 (win rate 50%). They’ve scored 11 and conceded 8, matching Liverpool’s defensive record but with a lower attacking xG (5.89). Their last three matches saw a 3-0 win (despite just 0.75 xG), a 2-2 draw with higher xG (1.38), and a 0-1 defeat. Marseille’s shot accuracy stands at 40.43%, and they average fewer shots per game (12.8) than Liverpool (18.3).
Liverpool are likely to deploy a high-pressing 4-3-3, dominating possession (56.63% average) and circulating the ball quickly through midfield, where Szoboszlai will look to dictate. They’re adept at creating big chances, but have missed 22 clear-cut opportunities – an area to improve. Defensively, they can be vulnerable on transitions, as shown by 8 goals conceded.
Marseille tend to shape up in a fluid 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, relying on quick transitions and direct play through the likes of Greenwood and Paixao. They average 53.68% possession and a pass accuracy of 86.3%, but their lower xG suggests they’re not generating as many high-value opportunities. Expect them to absorb pressure and break at pace, with set pieces also a potential weapon.
Dominik Szoboszlai vs. Marseille’s Double Pivot: The Hungarian’s creativity and set-piece threat will test Marseille’s defensive midfielders, who will need to close spaces and prevent him delivering into dangerous areas.
Greenwood & Paixao vs. Liverpool’s Back Line: Greenwood’s versatility and Paixao’s poacher instincts have combined for 7 goals; Liverpool’s centre-backs must remain disciplined, especially on the counter and when defending crosses.
| Statistic | Marseille | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 16th | 9th |
| Goals Scored | 11 | 11 |
| Goals Conceded | 8 | 8 |
Szoboszlai has been Liverpool’s standout midfield performer, notching 3 goals and a remarkable 17 big chance assists in this campaign. His shooting accuracy is 75%, and he’s delivered multiple games with 3+ key passes and shot assists. In recent outings, he’s demonstrated the ability to influence matches both from open play and set pieces, making him the creative heartbeat of Liverpool’s midfield. Expect him to play a pivotal role in unlocking a well-organised Marseille defence, especially with his vision and range of passing in the final third.
Q: Who is the favourite to win the Marseille vs Liverpool match?
A: Liverpool are the favourites to win, given their superior attacking metrics, higher xG, and group stage win rate. Marseille, however, have shown they can compete, particularly at home.
Q: What are the best betting odds for this match?
A: The best value selections are Liverpool to win & both teams to score, and Szoboszlai to register an assist. Both offer solid prices and are based on the teams’ recent trends and player influence.
Q: Where can I watch the Marseille vs Liverpool match?
A: The match will be broadcast live on BT Sport 2 and the BT Sport App in the UK.
Liverpool’s attacking firepower and superior creative metrics make them the likelier winners in this Champions League clash, but Marseille’s sharp forwards and solid home record suggest they’ll have their moments. Expect goals at both ends, with the midfield battle likely to decide the outcome. The best value lies with Liverpool to win and both teams to score, and in backing Szoboszlai’s creative output with an assist bet.
All betting odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly. For more information and support, visit BeGambleAware.org. You must be 18 or over to gamble.
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