Liverpool vs Burnley Predictions, Betting Tips & Match Preview

Dean Smith 03 Mar 2026
  • Liverpool return to Anfield seeking to consolidate their top-four position against a Burnley side languishing in the relegation zone. Kick-off is at 3:00pm on Saturday 17th January 2026, and with Burnley’s poor away record and Liverpool’s historical dominance in this fixture, the home crowd will expect nothing less than three points in this Premier League fixture.

Premier League
15:00
17 Jan
v
Odds correct at the time of writing
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Match Overview

Match Details Information
Competition Premier League
Matchday 22
Date Saturday 17 January 2026
Kick-off Time 15:00 (UK)
Venue Anfield
Broadcast N/A

Key Predictions & Confidence Score

Market Prediction Confidence
Full-Time Result Liverpool ★★★★☆
Correct Score 3-1 Liverpool ★★★☆☆
Both Teams to Score Yes ★★★☆☆
Over/Under 2.5 Goals Over 2.5 ★★★★☆

Top Betting Tips & Value Analysis

1. Value Bet: Both Teams to Score

  • Odds: 6/5 with Betfred
  • Value Rating: ★★★★☆

Analysis: Burnley have struggled for results but continue to create chances, boasting a shot accuracy of 39.81% – one of the highest in the league. Liverpool, despite their strong position, have conceded 28 goals in 21 games and kept just 7 clean sheets. Burnley’s defensive frailties (41 conceded) mean Liverpool should score freely, but Martin Dubravka’s shot-stopping and Burnley’s ability to convert limited chances (22 goals, xG 15.33) make a consolation goal likely. Recent league meetings also point to this: Burnley have found the net in three of their last five visits to Anfield. At odds-against, this price offers real value for punters expecting an open game.

2. Player Prop Bet: Florian Wirtz to Score Anytime

  • Odds: 47/20 with 10Bet
  • Value Rating: ★★★☆☆

Analysis: Florian Wirtz has recently established himself as a key attacking presence for Liverpool, offering creativity and goal threat from advanced midfield areas. The German international is heavily involved in Liverpool’s build-up play, regularly drifting into dangerous pockets and contributing a high volume of shots from central positions. Burnley’s defence has already shown vulnerability this season, conceding chances freely and struggling to contain runners arriving late into the box. With Wirtz’s intelligence, close control and ability to find space between the lines, he should cause problems for a Burnley backline that often sits deep and loses midfield runners.

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In-Depth Match Analysis

Recent Form and Performance

Liverpool have been solid if unspectacular, sitting 4th with 35 points from 21 matches (10 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats). They have scored 32 and conceded 28, giving them a +4 goal difference. Their pass completion rate is 86.38%, and they dominate possession in most matches (61.02% average), with 9,916 accurate passes so far this season. However, recent matches have highlighted occasional defensive lapses, contributing to a less convincing home run.

Burnley are in deep trouble, 19th in the table with just 13 points from 21 games (3 wins, 4 draws, 14 losses). The Clarets have scored 22 but shipped 41, with a worrying -19 goal difference. Burnley’s shot accuracy is high (39.81%), but they have only managed three clean sheets, and their goalkeeper has been the busiest in the league with 77 saves. Their away record is particularly poor, with zero wins at Anfield in their last seven visits.

Tactical Breakdown

Liverpool under Arne Slot are expected to continue with a high-pressing, possession-oriented 4-3-3. Their focus is on winning the ball high up the pitch and quickly transitioning into attack, making the most of their creative wide players and overlapping full-backs. They average 240 key passes (shot assists) – almost double Burnley’s tally – demonstrating their intent to break down low blocks with volume and quality in the final third.

Burnley, managed by Scott Parker, will likely set up in a compact 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1, aiming to frustrate Liverpool and play on the counter. They have attempted 368 tackles this season (more than Liverpool), and their aerial duel count is similar (349 successful). Expect Burnley to defend deep and absorb pressure, relying on set pieces or quick breaks through players like Armando Broja or Mike Trésor.

Key Player Matchups

Jeremie Frimpong vs Lucas Pires: Frimpong’s direct running and movement inside will test Burnley’s full-back, who is likely to be pinned back for long periods. Given Burnley’s defensive record and Liverpool’s high volume of shot assists, Frimpong should get multiple shooting opportunities in dangerous areas.

Martin Dubravka vs Liverpool Attack: Dubravka leads the league with 77 saves but has conceded 41 goals. His workload will be immense against a Liverpool side that averages nearly 15 shots per game. If Burnley are to have any hope of an upset, Dubravka will need to be at his sharpest.

Head-to-Head Record & Statistical Analysis

Statistic Liverpool Burnley
League Position 4th 19th
Goals Scored 32 22
Goals Conceded 28 41

Last 5 Results

Date Result Competition
14 Sep 2025 Burnley 0-1 Liverpool Premier League
10 Feb 2024 Liverpool 3-1 Burnley Premier League
26 Dec 2023 Burnley 0-2 Liverpool Premier League
13 Feb 2022 Burnley 0-1 Liverpool Premier League
21 Aug 2021 Liverpool 2-0 Burnley Premier League

Player Spotlight: Martin Dubravka

Burnley’s hopes of leaving Anfield with anything rest heavily on Martin Dubravka. The Slovakian keeper leads the Premier League with 77 saves and has been a rare bright spot in a struggling side. While the 41 goals conceded signal a porous defence, Dubravka’s individual performances – 13 high cross catches and 47 diving saves/parries – have undoubtedly prevented heavier defeats. Facing a Liverpool attack that boasts the likes of Wirtz, Gakpo, and Ekitiké, Dubravka will need another standout display to keep the scoreline respectable. His experience and reflexes under a barrage of shots may also offer value in the saves markets for those looking beyond the main betting lines.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Who is the favourite to win the Liverpool vs. Burnley match?
A: Liverpool are overwhelming favourites, given their superior league position, home advantage, and dominant head-to-head record against Burnley.

Q: What are the best betting odds for this match?
A: Our top selections include Liverpool to win, both teams to score, and over 2.5 goals, with value found in the both teams to score market and player prop bets.

Q: Where can I watch the Liverpool vs. Burnley match?
A: The match will be broadcast live on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League.

Conclusion & Key Takeaways

  • Liverpool are expected to dominate against a Burnley side in poor form and low on confidence.
  • The both teams to score market offers value, given Burnley’s shot accuracy and Liverpool’s recent defensive lapses.
  • Martin Dubravka remains Burnley’s most important player; his performance will be crucial in keeping the scoreline respectable.

Disclaimer & Responsible Gambling

All betting odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly. For more information and support, visit BeGambleAware.org. You must be 18 or over to gamble.

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