Comoros and Mali meet in an Africa Cup of Nations tie on Tuesday 29 December 2025 at 19:00 GMT. Find predictions, stats and betting tips for the Africa Cup of Nations fixture below in this match preview.
| Match Details | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | CAF Africa Cup of Nations |
| Matchday | 3 |
| Date | 29 December 2025 |
| Kick-off Time | 19:00 UK |
| Venue | Mohamed V Stadium |
| Broadcast | Sky Sports, BBC |
| Market | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Full-Time Result | Mali | ★★★★☆ |
| Correct Score | Comoros 0-2 Mali | ★★★☆☆ |
| Both Teams to Score | No | ★★★☆☆ |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ |
Value Bet: Mali to Win & Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2/1 with Bet365
Value Rating: ★★★★☆
Analysis: Mali have dominated recent head-to-heads, winning 2 of the last 3 meetings and scoring six goals without conceding to Comoros in those games (aggregate 6-0, last two competitive matches 3-0 wins for Mali). However, both teams have struggled for attacking fluidity in this tournament, with Comoros yet to score and Mali netting only twice in two group matches. Given Comoros’s defensive discipline (one clean sheet, just one yellow card in two games) and Mali’s lack of assists or creative output, a low-scoring Mali win appears the value angle. The single win odds are short, but combining with under 2.5 goals lifts this to a more attractive price for value seekers.
Bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets
New customers only. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. R
Player Prop Bet: Over 3.5 Cards in the Match
Odds: 5/4 with Paddy Power
Value Rating: ★★★★☆
Analysis: Mali have received nine yellow cards in just two group games (averaging 4.5 yellows per match), indicating a discipline issue under pressure. Comoros, while more restrained, have committed 33 fouls across two matches. With both sides likely to contest a tight, pivotal group decider, physicality and tactical fouls may increase. The statistical evidence, particularly Mali’s card count, strongly supports an overs cards bet at an odds-against price.
Paddy Power
Bet £5 Get £40 in Free Bets
18+. T&Cs Apply. gambleaware.org
Comoros enter this fixture with one point from two group matches, following a goalless draw and a defeat. Their attack has failed to register a goal so far, recording just 3 shots on target from 14 overall attempts—an on-target rate of 21.4%. Their average possession (41.6%) and pass accuracy (83.6%) suggest a side comfortable in recycling the ball but struggling to progress into dangerous areas.
Mali are unbeaten in group play but have drawn both matches. Offensively, they have scored two goals from 20 shots (10 shots per match), with a shot accuracy of 40%—almost double that of Comoros. However, they have also conceded twice and remain without a clean sheet. Notably, Mali have accrued nine yellow cards, the highest in the group, perhaps a sign of over-commitment in midfield battles.
Comoros have adopted a cautious, possession-based approach. Their high pass accuracy belies a lack of incisiveness, with zero assists and only two corners won in two matches. Expect them to set up in a compact, defensive structure aiming to frustrate Mali and hit on the break through players like Faïz Selamani and El-Fardou Ben Nabouhane.
Mali, by contrast, will seek to control the midfield and use their physicality and direct play to force mistakes, as evidenced by a higher shot count and more corners (six in two matches). Their lack of assists points to a reliance on individual skill or set pieces for goals. The challenge will be balancing their attacking intent with improved discipline, given their card record.
| Statistic | Comoros | Mali |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 2 | 2 |
| xG (Expected Goals) | N/A | N/A |
| xGA (Expected Goals Against) | N/A | N/A |
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 September 2025 | Mali 3-0 Comoros | CAF World Cup Qualifiers |
| 20 March 2025 | Comoros 0-3 Mali | CAF World Cup Qualifiers |
| 29 December 2025 | Comoros vs Mali (Fixture) | CAF Africa Cup of Nations |
With Mali needing a result, right-back Hamari Traoré could prove decisive. Known for his defensive resilience and ability to drive down the flank, Traoré has a history of performing in high-pressure matches. While not yet on the scoresheet in this tournament, his overlapping runs have contributed to Mali’s increased shot and corner count. Traoré’s experience and leadership may be vital in nullifying Comoros’s left-sided attacks and providing width to a Mali side that has struggled to register assists. His discipline and influence on both ends could shape the contest.
Mali look the stronger side on paper and recent form, with superior attacking output (two goals, 40% shot accuracy) and a dominant head-to-head record against Comoros. Comoros’s lack of goals and chance creation is a concern, but their defensive discipline could keep the contest close. The best betting value lies in combining a Mali win with under 2.5 goals and targeting the cards market, given Mali’s recent disciplinary record. Expect a low-scoring, competitive affair where Mali’s quality edges out a resilient but limited Comoros side.
All betting odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly. For more information and support, visit BeGambleAware.org. You must be 18 or over to gamble.
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets
New customers only. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration Required. #Ad 18+
Bet £10 Get Up to £100 in Free Bets
18+. Spread betting losses can exceed deposits. T&Cs Apply. gambleaware.org
...have a look at our Top Offers!
Bet £5 Get £20 in Free Bets
Bet £10 Get £20 in Free Bets
Bet £20 & Get A £20 Free Bet
