Alaves vs Real Madrid Predictions, Betting Tips & Match Preview

Fixture Details

• Home Team: Alaves
• Away Team: Real Madrid
• Competition: La Liga
• Matchday: 17
• Date: Sunday 14 December 2025
• Kick-off Time: 20:00 GMT
• Venue: Mendizorrotza

Match Overview

Key Predictions & Confidence Score

Top Betting Tips & Value Analysis

1. Value Bet: Both Teams to Score – No

• Odds: 1/1 with BOYLE Sports
• Value Rating: ★★★★☆

Analysis: Alavés have managed just 13 goals in 15 matches this season – less than one goal per game – while Real Madrid have kept 7 clean sheets from 16 league fixtures. Both teams have conceded only 15 goals, suggesting defensive solidity, but Alavés’ lack of attacking potency stands out. In their last five head-to-head meetings, three matches ended with Alavés failing to score. With Real Madrid’s disciplined back line and a focus on controlling possession (averaging 59.7% this season), the value lies in backing at least one team to blank in this contest.

1

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2. Player Prop Bet: Vinicius Jr. Anytime Goalscorer

• Odds: 23/10 with Coral
• Value Rating: ★★★☆☆

Analysis: While all eyes are on Kylian Mbappé (16 goals, 42.5% shot accuracy), Vinicius Jr. remains a threat in Madrid’s attack and often finds space against mid-table defences. With Alavés conceding 15 goals and Real Madrid’s xG standing at 31.76, there should be enough attacking play for Vinicius to get on the scoresheet. His movement and link-up with Madrid’s creative midfield, notably Arda Güler (5 assists, 90.06% pass accuracy), could prove decisive.

1

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In-Depth Match Analysis

Recent Form and Performance

Real Madrid sit 2nd in La Liga with 36 points from 16 games, boasting an impressive record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and just 2 losses. They have scored 32 goals (2 per match) and conceded only 15, demonstrating both attacking prowess and defensive organisation.

Alavés, in contrast, are 11th with 18 points from 15 matches, winning 5, drawing 3, and losing 7. Their 13 goals scored highlight a lack of firepower, yet they have only conceded 15 goals – matching Madrid’s defensive record, reflecting a solid rearguard.

Madrid have been dominant in possession (averaging 59.7%) and pass accuracy (89.48%), dictating the tempo and restricting opponents’ opportunities. Alavés, with an average 49.15% possession and 80.68% pass accuracy, show resilience but lack the offensive efficiency found in the league’s top sides.

Tactical Breakdown

Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid have favoured a possession-based 4-3-3, pressing high and using the technical ability of their midfield to recycle the ball and create overloads. Expect Madrid to push their full-backs forward and rely on quick transitions, with Vinicius Jr. and Mbappé exploiting space wide and centrally.

Alavés are likely to set up compact, perhaps in a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1, focusing on defensive shape and quick counters. Their priority will be to frustrate Madrid’s creative players and seek set-piece opportunities. However, their limited attacking output suggests that even at home, caution will dominate their approach.

Key Player Matchups

• Mbappé vs. Alavés Backline: Mbappé’s 16 goals and 131 touches inside the opposition box highlight his threat. Alavés’ centre-backs will need to be disciplined and well-positioned to prevent him from exploiting half-spaces—any lapse will likely be punished.
• Arda Güler vs. Alavés Midfield: With 5 assists and a 90%+ pass completion, Güler is Madrid’s creative heartbeat. Alavés must close him down quickly, otherwise he’ll dictate play and carve open their defence.

Head-to-Head Record & Statistical Analysis

Last 5 Meetings

Player Spotlight: Kylian Mbappé

The French superstar is redefining La Liga’s attacking standards. Mbappé leads the division with 16 goals from 16 appearances, averaging a goal every match. His finishing is outstanding – outperforming his xG of 7.3 with clinical precision. Mbappé also contributes 4 assists and a remarkable 47 big chance assists, while maintaining an 89.1% pass accuracy. He’s involved in the action, with 131 touches inside opposition penalty areas, and his movement constantly stretches defences. Against Alavés, expect him to be Madrid’s most persistent threat both on the counter and in settled possession.

Team News

Alaves

• Injuries: None.
• Suspensions: None.
• Ineligible: None.

Real Madrid

• Injuries: Éder Militão, Daniel Carvajal, Trent Alexander-Arnold, David Alaba, Ferland Mendy, Eduardo Camavinga, Kylian Mbappé.
• Suspensions: None.
• Ineligible: None.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Who is the favourite to win the Deportivo Alavés vs. Real Madrid match?
A: Real Madrid are strong favourites to win, based on their superior league position, attacking output, and historical dominance in this fixture.

Q: What are the best betting odds for this match?
A: The top value bets are: Real Madrid to win at 4/7, Both Teams to Score – No at 1/1, Correct Score 0-1 at 7/1, and Vinicius Jr. Anytime Goalscorer at 23/10.

Q: Where can I watch the Deportivo Alavés vs. Real Madrid match?
A: The match will be broadcast live on La Liga TV and Viaplay Sports in the UK.

Conclusion & Key Takeaways

Real Madrid’s attacking firepower, led by Mbappé and supported by creative talents like Arda Güler, sets them apart from Alavés, who have been solid defensively but lack a consistent goal threat. Madrid’s 2-goal-per-game average and dominance in possession should prove decisive. Alavés will aim to frustrate, but the visitors’ quality should tip the balance. Key value can be found in the Both Teams to Score – No market (1/1), while Vinicius Jr. offers attacking threat as an anytime goalscorer (23/10).

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